Analysis Table for Polkadot Parachain Auction Investment Value

  While Kusama parachain auction used to be a way to citadel limited only for those who knew the info, now everyone knows about the parachain auction. The Polkadot parachain auction opened with much more enthusiasm compared to the Kusama parachain auction. Thanks to those people who are waiting for my analysis and finding it useful, I am going to write whenever I find any juicy targets. Most of the Polkadot parachains did not reveal their initial supply. I think they are probably trying to blind people, but no way. I calculated what was not calculated even by the Polkadot specialized communities.

The understanding of the parachain auction and the difference between Kusama and Polka Dot should be provided, so be sure to read my previous writings since this posting will not be explaining such content. This post is going to be very lengthy, so I will be skipping a detailed explanation of the projects. Detailed analysis of target parachains will be conducted from the second week.

Easy explanation to Parachain auction

A list of posts related to Polkadot

From connecting your wallet to participation

  Contents

1. The biggest change in Polkadot Parachain
2. Analysis Table for Polkadot Parachain Auction Investment Value

3. Moonbeam

4. Acala
5. Astar
6. Parallel

1. The biggest change in Polkadot Parachain

  What would be the biggest change in the Polkadot parachain Auction if any? It’s the presence of liquidity DOT provided on behalf of DOT that are tied up due to crowd loan participation such as aDOT, bDOT, and cDOT, which were not provided in the Kusama parachain. These liquidity-providing DOT are used like convertible bonds, so if you have these DOT, you can exchange 1:1 with DOT around the end of the lock-up of the parachain auction. It is said that the holders will be able to use de-fi with these, but it is expected that the annual percentage rate (one-year single-rate profit when deposited) will not be large.

The farther from the expiration date, the cheaper it will be, and the closer it is to the expiration date, the closer it will be to the price of DOT. In other words, I think it will be almost impossible to sell liquidity DOT as soon as it is deposited and buy another Parachain with it (You will be able to put in only a small amount as it will be much cheaper than expected). On the other hand, there is also a strategy to buy the liquidity DOT, like bDOT, if its price is low. (I want this to happen the most. Think about liquidity DOT being $1 hehe. But, highly unlikely)

CEX support Polkadot Parachain

  Also, the major CEX like Binance did not support the Kusama parachain auction, but now since many of them are willing to support the Polkadot parachain auction, it’s getting huge attention. Up to now, at least the parachain auction winning projects were listed in the CEX that supported parachain auction. That means it is very likely to be listed on Binance too. Therefore, it seems that it is necessary to calculate the hype by adding it more than in the case of Kusama.

2. Analysis Table for Polka Dot Parachain Auction Investment Value

  I changed the table I used for Kusama to the Polka Dot version and added a few more details. You can calculate the value like Kusama if you add bonus rewards for each project. Such a value calculation method is a calculation method in terms of calculating ‘profit and loss ratio’ rather than calculating appropriate value. It starts from the perspective of “How quickly can I recover my investment?” rather than “Is the price of this project appropriate?” No matter how fundamental the project is, it’s a scam if I don’t get to recover my investment. Refer to the table for details.

Revised

*For those who misinterpret the table… The small market cap means that the value calculated with the current price is small. It will be a burden if you want to make a profit with a big market cap from the beginning because it has to get bigger and bigger. The standard for a big and small market cap is the MOVR, which is doing the best, currently has a market capitalization of $866,201,170. However, take it into the consideration to some extent that this Polkadot parachain ‘Is one of the main projects + will be listed on Binance

3. Moonbeam $GLMR

15% initial supply up to 2 months after launch (150M)

  The very project that brought the public’s attention to the parachain auction. MOONBEAM (I could tell its success from the name). Moonriver, the Kusama version of Moonbeam, brought a huge profit to the investors due to its large allocation (30% of total volume) and good profit and loss ratio. In other words, there was a large amount of distribution, due to the break-even point being very low, because a small number of people shared a large amount.

  This time, the same method as Moonriver was chosen for the quota of 15% of the total volume. There is no referral nor preferential treatment. It’s like they’re saying “If you think we are going to be successful, just invest! We will not be selling timidly. We’re the fundamental one!”. Of course, Moonbeam is the fundamental one, but I think there is no need to invest in them first ignoring all other opportunity costs and go all in. In other words, it is better to choose Moonbeam after some observations, checking if it seems like it is going to win, and if their reward is good. You will not earn the most if you buy from the Moonbeam website.

Additional 4PARA+5% reward referral per dot for participation link of Moonbeem
*It takes some time to connect to the Parallel site, so please wait!
If you want to enter the code yourself, 0x1846e722203464421dcb655dac632529f44c32b4aa1fd9a9a363de3e6a1ac6eb

4. Acala $ACA

Initial supply 7.5%(75M)

  I worked hard making the circulating supply graph above and then worked hard again calculating the initial circulating supply. The initial circulating supply of Acala is not mentioned anywhere on the Medium, Docs, nor on their web. So, I calculated by looking at the whitepaper, looking at this and that and that got me 7.5%. There may be possible errors, but I don’t think it will be huge. Acala offers a total of 14% bonus(changed Maximum 30%, check this LINK): 10% to the wallet that staked Karura, 2% for referral, and 2% for Acala quest. However, like Moonbeam, it would be wise to calculate the amount of compensation and after some observation, invest when it is about to win.

Additional 4PARA+Maximum 30% reward referral per dot for participation link of Acala

5. Astar $ASTR

  The Kusama version of Asta is SDN Shiden. The original name was Plasm, but it rebranded to Astar. I could not even find a circulating supply graph for Astar, so I had to refer to the initial supply of Shiden. What has no vesting plan among Shiden is a lock drop of 30%. Taking this as a reference, Astar is also expected to have an initial supply of 40% with the initial supply of 10% of parachain Auction and 30% of lock drop, and the initial supply in the first month is about 41.8% (considering 10% of one-year inflation rate and one month amount of three-year vesting schedule).

Revised

  *2021/11/14
Asta lockdrop will be change. If you want lead this LINK, so change initial supply 7.5%(525,000,000, 20% (420M) of 30% lock drop (2.1B), 10% (150M) of 15% crowd loan(1.05B)
It is very good news for crowdloan contributor.

  It seems like the bonus reward of Astar is generous compared to other auctions. There is 20% participation reward in the first week, 10% for participating in Shiden crowd loan and holding more than the compensation amount, 1% for referrals, which makes 31% in total. In other words, it can be said that it is overwhelmingly advantageous to stake before the 18th of November. Astar also won third place in the Kusama parachain Auction and is a project that is considered to be fundamental for its activities on the testnet, so it is likely to win in the third week again. Therefore, it is worthy to invest in the first week in advance.
*If you have not participated in the Shiden Crowd loan, it is advantageous to stake with Parallel Finance, which can earn 20% participation compensation in the first week, 1% referral, and 4PARA + 5% per 1DOT.

Participants of Shiden crowd loan – Link to participate (131% total reward) in Astar


Non participants of Schiden crowd loan – Link to participate in Parallel (total reward of 121% + 4PARA + 5%)

*It takes some time to connect to the Parallel site, so please wait!
If you want to enter the code yourself, 0x1846e722203464421dcb655dac632529f44c32b4aa1fd9a9a363de3e6a1ac6eb

6. Parallel $PARA

보험기금 제외하고 TGE 후 6개월 유통 공급량 13.25%

  I’ll just put it in one word. All projects I have not mentioned are not mentioned for a reason, but on the contrary, Parallel has to be mentioned. And this is not for a good reason. The reward is fixed at 33 PARA per 1 DOT and it is 24 months of vesting without unlocking at all. The compensation of crowd loans itself is the highest of 3.75% except for liquidity mining (5.75%) among the six-month distribution supplies after TGE (in calculating this, 5% of the insurance fund was not considered).

Given that liquidity mining is large, it would not be bad to try liquidity mining later. However, please refer to the table attached in Table of Contents No. 2 first. Only those who think investing DOT in fixed rates and poor compensation will be worth more should go for it. For a detailed description of the project, please read my past posting about the Heiko description (Heiko was not like this, and PARA will come to senses later).

Parachain auction] Polkadot Parallel Finance Kusama Heiko strategy

  To mention liquidity mining because it’s such a shocking compensation, I think it would be better to mine with cDOT and sell PARA. cDOT is a token that is expected to rise in price in the long term as a convertible bond, and PARA has a structure of producing more and more tokens as mining rewards. In short, there is no reason to mine pickaxes with a pickaxe (It is better to invest in Astar with Parallel). I am not sure if they set up the tokenomics groundbreaking enough to surpass my common sense and prevent the dumping of PARA, but at least I don’t want to invest in what I don’t understand.

Revised

*Revised on 2021/11/09
Even the CEO of Parallel explains that it was a misunderstanding and says that what remains at the minimum of 33 PARAs will be shared based on the quota like other projects (Of course, before this is said, it was fixed at 33 PARAs). But on the other hand, it became an issue that he said he will airdrop the amount of Heiko instead of giving the whitelist opportunity. (If it’s the same amount, it won’t matter, but they will give out small amount since it’s an airdrop, right?) To sum up…

  1. The poor response broke the trust of the project.
  2. Nevertheless, it is indeed a project with a lot of capital invested.

Since I am in the standpoint of diversifying my investment, 40% of initial reward is attractive, so when the CEO came out to explain, I staked some DOTs, but I leave you all to make your own judgment. I’ve updated it because I figured you’re curious about the progress. The official announcement is likely to come out today (40% additional compensation until today).

*Revised on 2021/11/14
Early bird 40% bonus is over. changed 20%, However, due to the unique calculation method, there will be no significant difference in the amount of compensation.

Parallel, early 20% (until November 18), referral 5% reward link

*Revised on 2021/12/17
batch 1 result update


This POST N.F.A Just share my research. Invest is your choice.

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